The uncertainty of the international environment has increased. The person in charge of the China Iron and Steel Association stated that the World Bank's report on June 7th once again lowered its expectations for global and major developed country economic growth: the world economic growth rate was lowered from the January forecast of 2.9% to 2.4%, the US economic growth forecast was lowered from 2.7% to 1.9%, the eurozone was lowered from 1.7% to 1.6%, and Japan was lowered from 1.3% to 0.5%. There are still many overall unstable factors in the world economy, and the UK's "Brexit" indicates that regional economic integration and economic globalization are facing challenges, and the possibility of significant changes in the world economic landscape continues to increase. The possibility of monetary and financial policy adjustments in major economies continues to increase. In the second half of the year, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the Bank of Japan will launch a new round of quantitative easing, and the United States is expected to enter a cycle of interest rate hikes, which will have a significant impact on the exchange rate market. At the same time, terrorist attacks and political events have occurred in many parts of the world, and global political, economic, and military uncertainties have increased, which will inevitably affect the international economy and trade, and drag down economic recovery.
The domestic economy is steadily advancing and improving. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the expert symposium on economic situation on July 8th that the current economic operation is basically stable, and the long-term positive fundamentals of economic development have not changed. The economic trend is still divided, and the transition between new and old development drivers requires a process. In the first half of the year, the gross domestic product increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the economic structure continued to optimize. Mainly manifested in: from the perspective of industrial structure, the tertiary industry continues to maintain rapid development, accounting for 54.1% of GDP, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year; The growth rate of industrial high-tech industries reached 10.2%, accounting for 12.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is 73.4%, an increase of 13.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the supply side structural reform is being implemented, and the "three reductions, one reduction, and one supplement" have achieved initial results.
From the perspective of downstream industry demand, most of the major downstream steel industries are not doing well. Industries such as machinery, shipbuilding, containers, and home appliances will continue the downward trend of the first half of the year, while the real estate and automotive industries will maintain certain growth. The poor growth of private investment has weakened the driving force of investment on economic growth. The only one with a faster growth rate is infrastructure investment, which is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year. From the perspective of downstream demand, it is overall weak. But we cannot be too pessimistic. As the world's second-largest economy, China's economic growth rate still ranks among the top in the world; China remains the world's largest steel consumption market, with an annual consumption of around 700 million tons, and still has great potential.
(Information source: www.pipew.com）